Steen Jakobsen said, "our main global macro outlook still maintains that recession is more likely to happen in the near future (within 12 to 18 months) based on the global credit impulse having peaked simultaneously with global inflation."

雅各布森表示：“基于全球信贷和通胀同时触顶，我们对全球宏观经济前景的主要观点仍是，在未来12-18个月里全球经济很可能会陷入衰退。”

In a recent note, Jakobsen explained that the biggest"perception-versus-reality gap" in the market currently remains this risk of recession. He added that his company is not predicting a recession, but that its economic model does indicate a significant slowdown as "the large credit impulse from China and Europe in the early part of 2016 has not reversed to negative", which it says should make the market conservative, risk averse push investors into U.S. fixed income.

雅各布森在最近公布的一份研究报告中解释称：“目前市场大大低估了衰退发生的风险。我们并不是在预测衰退的到来，而是经济模型显示由于中国和欧洲地区的信贷冲动仍没有得到扭转，因此未来的经济增速将急剧下跌。” 这将会导致市场趋向保守，避险情绪将会推动投资者涌入美国固定收益类领域。

 "While the market at large sees less than a 10 percent chance of recession, we at Saxo –together with our friends at South Africa's Nedbank – see more than a 60 percent chance," he added in the note.

在报告中，他补充说，“虽然市场基本上都认为经济衰退的可能性不足10%，但我们以及南非莱利银行都认为经济陷入衰退的可能性超过了60%。

But, according to Jakobsen, Europe's momentum is not followed in other parts of the globe.

但是，雅各布森指出，虽然欧洲经济有所加强，但全球其他地区的表现就要相对逊色很多。

"One thing is absolutely clear: Asia is not going to contribute anything in 2017 to growth. China is currently at a total standstill," Jakobsen said Monday.

雅各布森指出：有一点是非常明确的：亚洲在2017年将不会对全球经济增长做出任何贡献，中国经济已经处于停滞状态。