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2017-07-17 12:44
导读：瑞信董事总经理、全球金融策略首席Michael J. Mauboussin 在激荡华尔街三十年之际，撰写了一篇特别版报告，将其过去三十年来总结的伟大投资者的共同特征与投资者共享。其中， 这四大特征对于任何类型的投资均有普遍意义。
1. Understand value
(the present value of free cash flow)
理解价值（自由现金流的现值）
上市公司的半衰期大约是10年，这意味着，可投资的公司处在不断的变化中。然而有一点几乎不变的是：未来现金流折现后的现值决定了资产的价值，不管是股票、债券还是房产都是如此。
Great fundamental investors focus on understanding the magnitude and sustainability of free cash
flow. Factors that an investor must consider include where the industry is in its life cycle, a
company’s competitive position within its industry, barriers to entry, and management’s skill at allocating capital. A corollary to this attribute is that great investors understand the limitations of valuation approaches such as price/earnings and enterprise value/EBITDA multiples. Indeed, multiples are not valuation but a shorthand for the valuation process.
伟大的基本面投资者关注并理解自由现金流的规模和持续性。具体而言，需要综合考虑公司所处的行业生命周期，公司在整个行业竞争中所处的位置，行业的进入门槛和公司管理层配置公司资源的能力等。所以伟大投资者都非常清楚如市盈率和企业价值倍数等估值方法的局限性。实际上，这些指标并不直接代表公司价值，而只是评估价值过程中需要用到的便捷工具而已。
2 . Properly assess strategy
(or how a business makes money).
正确评估公司战略（即公司如何赚钱）
This attribute has two dimensions. The first is a
fundamental understanding of how a company
makes money. The idea is to distill the business to
the basic unit of analysis. Great investors can explain clearly how a company makes money, and
never own the stock of a company if they do not
understand how it makes money.
这一能力有微观和宏观两个方面。微观方面， 伟大的投资者对公司如何赚钱有深层的理解，他们会细看整个公司的经营。伟大的投资者对自己投资的公司如何赚钱十分明了，对影响利润变化的因素十分了解；他们从来不投资自己不了解的公司。
The second dimension is gaining a grasp of a
company’s sustainable competitive advantage. A
company has a competitive advantage when it earns a return on investment above the opportunity
cost of capital and earns a higher return than its
competitors. Great investors can appreciate what
differentiates a company that allows it to build an
economic moat around its franchise that protects
the business from competitors. The size and
longevity of the moat are significant inputs into
any thoughtful valuation.
宏观方面，是对公司竞争优势可持续性的理解。一个公司的竞争优势在财务上的体现是，投资回报率高于其投入资金的机会成本并且高于同行竞争者的回报率。伟大的投资者能够鉴别公司凭借什么优势建立起经济壁垒，防御其他竞争者的入侵。而这个防御壁垒的规模和可持续性则是公司估值的重要因素。
3. Think probabilistically
用概率来思考
投资是一门概率艺术。伟大投资者整个的思维框架是建立在概率上的，并在市场上寻找价格与概率错配所产生的投资机会。
When probability plays a large role in outcomes, it
makes sense to focus on the process of making
decisions rather than the outcome alone. The reason is that a particular outcome may not be indicative of the quality of the decision. Good decisions
sometimes result in bad outcomes and bad
decisions lead to good outcomes. Over the long
haul, however, good decisions portend favorable
outcomes even if you will be wrong from time to
time. Learning to focus on process and accept the
periodic and inevitable bad outcomes is crucial.
当概率对投资结果有较大影响，伟大投资者的关注点更侧重于决策过程而非结果。因为好的结果不代表决策过程优异。长期来看，即使你时不时犯错，好的决策可以预示好的结果。
因此，对于投资者来说，重点关注投资决策过程，并接受偶尔不好的投资结果至关重要。
Great investors recognize another uncomfortable
reality about probability: the frequency of
correctness does not really matter, what matters is
how much money you make when you are right
versus how much money you lose when you are
wrong (slugging percentage). This concept is very
difficult to put into operation because of loss
aversion. But if the goal is grow the value of a
portfolio, slugging percentage is what matters.
伟大投资者的对概率的另一个清醒认识是，他们清楚正确和错误的次数并不重要，重要的是每次正确决策时能带来多少收益以及每次错误决策时带来多少损失。由于人们对损失有本能的厌恶，所以这一理念在一般人的投资决策中很难实行。但伟大的投资者摒弃了对损失的厌恶本能，不关注对错，只关注手中投资组合终值。
4. Update your views effectively
(Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected)
更新自己的观点（观点是有待验证的假设，而非一成不的原则）
多数人喜欢一直保持自己的观点，即便事实已经开始证明这一观点是错误的。并且我们也通常期待他他人保持观点一致。正是这种保护观点的行为阻止了对事件的不断思考，并避免根据新的推论做出行为上的改变。
The best investors among us recognize that the
world changes constantly and that all of the views
that we hold are tenuous. They actively seek
varied points of view and update their beliefs as
new information dictates. The consequence of
updated views can be action: changing a portfolio
stance or weightings within a portfolio.
伟大投资者清醒地认识到世界处于不断变化之中，我们目前持有的所有观点是脆弱的不堪一击。他们主动寻找与自己观点向左的信息、观点和事实，并在有确凿证据证明自己观点错误时，果断更新自己的观点。看似容易的行为，实际上常人难以做到。更新观点的结果是行动：更改头寸方向或增减其在组合中的比重。
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