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2017-07-17 12:54
导读：摩根士丹利今日发布报告，高调看涨中国，认为中国将躲过金融危机并且过渡到高附加值的制造业和服务业，到2027年成为高收入国家，转型十年间新经济行业蕴藏大量投资机会。
China will likely avoid a financial crisis and is on track to reach high income status by 2027, according to a new Morgan Stanley report on the nation’s longer-term prospects titled "Why we are bullish on China."
根据摩根士丹利有关中国中长期前景的最新报告《我们为何看涨中国》，中国有可能躲过金融危机，有望到2027年成为高收入国家。
The sweeping outlook comes amid growing concern over China’s surging debt levels, slow pace of reforms and the impact of a potential trade spat with the U.S. While acknowledging those concerns as legitimate, the analysts point to the country’s increasing shift into high value-added manufacturing and services that will play a central role in boosting per capita incomes to $12,900 over the next decade from $8,100 now.
摩根士丹利作出这一广泛展望之际，投资者正日益担忧中国的债务水平激增、改革步伐放缓以及可能与美国发生贸易摩擦的影响。摩根士丹利的分析师们虽然承认这些担忧是合理的，但他们指出，中国正在不断朝着高附加值制造业和服务业转型，这将在未来十年发生关键作用，促进人均收入从当前的8,100美元上升至 12,900美元。
词汇解析：
prospect 前景 bullish on 看涨
outlook 展望 trade spat 贸易摩擦
If China manages to pull off that feat, it will join South Korea and Poland as the only large economies with a population of over 20 million to achieve that over the past three decades, Morgan Stanley said. The World Bank defines high-income economies as those with a gross national income of at least $12,476 per person.
摩根士丹利表示，若能实现这一壮举，中国将加入韩国和波兰的行列。过去三十年，韩国和波兰这两个人口超过2,000万人的经济体晋升高收入国家之列。世界银行对高收入经济体的定义是人均国民总收入不低于12,476美元。
There are other positives, too. Consumption and services are increasingly powering growth and proposed structural reforms such as the closure of uncompetitive state-owned enterprises will clear the way for new, high-value added industries in areas such as health care, education and environmental services, according to Morgan Stanley. That would spur the creation of a new generation of Chinese multinational corporations with significant presences both at home and abroad.
另外还有其他有利因素。摩根士丹利认为，消费和服务日渐成为增长动力，而关闭缺乏竞争力的国有企业等拟议的结构性改革将为医疗保健、教育和环境服务等高附加值新兴产业的崛起扫清道路。这将促进在国内外都有重要影响的新一代中国跨国企业的兴起。
词汇解析：
pull off 成功完成；努力实现
structural reform 结构性改革
feat 功绩；壮举 spur 激发
Low Risk 低风险
At the same time, the risk of a financial shock remains low even though overall debt soared to 279 percent of the economy last year from 147 percent in 2007. That’s because borrowing has been funded by China’s own savings and been used for investment. Strong net asset positions provide a buffer along with an ongoing current account surplus, high foreign reserves and the absence of significant inflationary pressures that would destabilize the financial system, according to the report.
与此同时，尽管中国债务总额与经济规模的比例从2007年的147%上升至去年的279%，但发生金融危机的风险依然较低。这是因为借款的资金来源是中国自己的储蓄，而用途是投资。根据报告，强大的净资产头寸，加上持续的经常项目盈余、庞大的外汇储备以及通胀压力不明显，这些都为中国防范金融危机提供了缓冲。
A one-off devaluation of the yuan is also unlikely thoughthe currency will likely weaken further, according to Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利认为，虽然人民币有可能进一步走软，但人民币一次性贬值的可能性不大。
词汇解析：
soar 攀升 buffer 缓冲
one-off devaluation 一次性贬值
分析师们表示，有迹象显示中国领导层关注的重点正在从刺激经济增长转向控制金融风险，这也支持了他们的乐观看法。
债务负担
中国有可能会沿着与日本类似的道路进行债务管理，但未来几年的经济增速会保持在更高的水平。摩根士丹利预计中国2021-2025年间的平均增速为4.6%。这还不到过去三十年9.6%平均增长率的一半。
“中 国的债务和人均GDP水平起点较低（中国如今的债务与GDP的比例为日本1980年的水平，以购买力平价衡量的人均GDP是日本80年代中期的水平），” 分析师们写道。“不让人民币像日元在广场协议之后那样急剧升值，中国如今可以说处在更有利的位置，仍能实现高于全球水平的经济增长。”
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