1. 叙事谬误

现在有种投资策略越发流行，叫"技术分析"。其实是占星术的分支，即读图术，据说能"解读"市场，尽管从走势图上根本看不到任何跟公司有关的信息。人们光是看曲折的走势图就能编出个故事，例如市场"动能衰竭"，或是"触底"之类。

很多投资者痴迷于这种毫无作用的技术。行为经济学专门研究心理学在财务决策方面的作用，解释了其中原因。作者纳西姆o尼古拉斯o塔勒布称之为"叙事谬误"（Narrative Fallacy）。

It's the human tendency, actually the human need, to impose order on random events and to make events we didn't anticipate seem"predictable" after the fact.

从随机事件中寻找规律，事情发生后将意料之外解读为"意料之中"是人类本能倾向，也是人类的需要。

The narrative fallacy explains many common financial errors. The news is that it's equally useful for

understanding today's conspiracy politics. It's why, rather than accept that John F. Kennedy was killed by a lone, random gunman, we invented conspiracy theories-to spare us the ontological despair of acknowledging that chaos, not order, rules the universe.

叙事谬误可以解释很多金融领域常见的错误，在理解当今世界种种政治阴谋时同样也可以用上。这就是为何人们很难相信刺杀约翰·F·肯尼迪是一个单独行动的枪手随机行为，会想象出很多阴谋理论，其实就是不想承认混乱才是宇宙的主流，秩序没那么强大。

Taleb's The Black Swan, published in 2007, became a handbook for market traders-a reminder that random, extreme events like economic crashes overtake the best of plans.They also overtake individuals-those who happened to be in the wrong place during a natural disaster or who worked in a once-healthy industry, such as journalism, that was undercut by a new technology.

塔勒布的《黑天鹅》一书出版于2007年，很快变成交易员案头必备书。书中认为面对经济危机之类随机极端事件，再好的计划也没用。个人也难免受到随机事件打击，尤其是一些大灾难中恰好出现在错误地方的人，或是在曾经辉煌的行业工作，例如新闻从业者因为新科技出现失去工作。

许多人都很难接受其实很多领域无法预测。回顾历史也能发现很多事没法解释。总体来说，新闻事件和历史进程并没有想象中容易解读。没人能准确预测2011年911事件，也没有经济学家能在1970年预测财富分配要开始倾斜，富人变得更富，中产阶级陷入停滞。变量实在太多了，而且一些重要的变量（例如新生软件行业的潜力）当时很难意识到。

如何避免叙事谬误？

It's possible to avoid falling for the narrative fallacy. If you're an economist, this means trying not to superimpose, say, a pattern from the last economic cycle on the future. If you're in business, assessing diffuse data to figure out whether to go ahead with an investment, it means resisting the temptation to see a coherent story in that data. Reality is messy. If the investment works, it will have to work in a future that abides a wide range of environments-recessions, new competitors, wars.

不过想避免落入叙事谬误还是有可能的。如果是经济学家，就不要把上个经济周期的规律强加在未来走势上。如果在商业界，通过评估分散的数据来确定要不要继续投资时，就要避免从数据中找出连贯故事的倾向。现实很混乱。如果投资策略有效,那么它就得能应对未来各种复杂的环境,例如经济衰退，出现新竞争者或是战争。

投资者尤其要小心过于相信股市里的故事，一旦陷入错误逻辑，任何涨跌都只会印证之前的判断。证券分析可不是寻求真相，说白了就是想尽可能低价买入。但判断很可能出错，一些随机事件就可能导致判断错误。

2. 近因效应

想象一下：在NBA总决赛上，克里夫兰骑士队的勒布朗o詹姆斯刚刚进了一个跳投。然后他又进了一个。又一个。 三投三中，他手感真棒，接下来这球也跑不了，对吧？

大多数人都会毫不犹豫地回答："对"。但人们的判断其实和勒布朗的技术没什么关系，更多来自大脑的猜测。看似一个简单的预期，其实是长期进化的结果。不过这种预感最大的问题就是准确度不高。从统计数据看，勒布朗投进的可能性并不比打到篮筐弹出去的可能性大多少，跟之前是否连续进球没什么关系。

This leaping-to-conclusions phenomenon is called"recency bias," and it's deep in our emotional wiring. "It's an interesting effect," says Dan Ariely, a professor of behavioral economics at Duke University and the author of books including Predictably Irrational (and the originator of the hoops analogy). "We look atthe most recent evidence, take it too seriously, and expect that things will continue in that way."

这种不假思索就得出结论的现象叫做"近因效应"，深藏在我们的情感脉络中。杜克大学行为经济学教授、《可预测的非理性》（Predictably Irrational）等书作者（也是最早提出上述投篮类比的人）丹·艾瑞里说："这种效应很有趣。人们总是看最新的证据，过于当真，而且预计后面会发生同样的事。"

近因效应对投资者来说很特别危险，一个不留神就会变成为人们大脑中错估投资方向的罪魁祸首。

市场专业人士也难免受这种思维方式影响。2008年初，全球经济乍现疲软之势。但在连续五年实现正回报以后，股票分析师的信心也升至历史高点。研究机构Bespoke Investment Group最近的研究显示，当时华尔街一致认为市场还能上涨11.1%。大家应该想到了，分析师的预测主要依据也是近期行情。我们也都知道接下来发生了什 么--经济断崖式下跌，当年标普500指数跌去了38.5%。

Recency bias also helps explain retail investor behavior during times of greed or panic. Assets often flow into stocks near market tops and exit at the bottom-exactly the opposite of what investors should be doing, says David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research.

近因效应还有助于解释贪婪或恐慌行情中散户的行为。投资研究公司TrimTabsInvestment Research首席执行官大卫o桑茨奇指出，资产流入经常出现在股市就要见顶时，流出则经常出现在市场底部，正好跟投资者应该采取的操作相反。

如何克服近因效应？

包括"近因效应"在内，根深蒂固的思维习惯可能影响投资者的决策，导致投资蒙受损失。以下三种方法可以尽量克服。

Watch out for high prices

价格高时要当心

Unusually high price/earnings valuations are often a sign that the party for stocks has gone on a little too long. With stocks trading well above their averages, now may be a good time to sell big winners and put the profits aside.

如果市盈率高得离谱，经常意味着股票上涨时间有些过长。目前股票价格已经远高于平均水平，或许是个卖出大涨股落袋为安的好机会。

Play it safe for retirement

为了退休安全操作

The years immediately before and after retirement are when losses can hurt an investor's long-term plans the most. Savers in that life stage should consider putting more money in cash and bonds-no matter how bullish they feel.

退休前后几年是投资损失对长期计划影响最严重的时候。处在这个阶段的人应该考虑把资金更多地配置在现金和债券上，不管感觉市场有多牛。

Rely on an autopilot

依靠"自动驾驶"

When emotions run high, it helps to have tools that discourage buying or selling on impulse. Target-date funds, "robo-advisers," and annuities can help investors avoid taking excessive risks in good times or panic selling in bad.

在兴奋状态下，阻止冲动型买卖的工具会很有用。目标日期基金、"智能投顾"以及年金都可以帮助投资者避免在牛市中冒太多风险，或者在熊市中恐慌抛售。